Samir Arora warns! Biggest risk to Indian stock markets not Donald Trump’s tariffs but…
As US President Donald Trump’s tariffs loom, Helios Capital’s founder and chief investment officer, Samir Arora has said that India’s market is at a bigger risk from US economic downturn, than the reciprocal tariffs.
“I think the biggest risk to Indian market is not tariffs applied to India but what happens to the US market and economy due to various tariffs, which then affects other markets and sectors like Indian IT,” Samir Arora said in a post on X (formerly Twitter).
Samir Arora’s observations come at a time when investors are preparing for new reciprocal US tariffs, scheduled for April 2, which President Trump has designated as “Liberation Day.” The yet unknown scope of these measures has created uncertainty regarding global trade relations, inflationary pressures, and potential US economic deceleration.
The White House confirmed immediate implementation of tariffs following the announcement. Additional concerns centre on strengthening US dollar values and increasing Treasury yields, which could affect FPI flows into emerging markets, including India.
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On March 10, Arora highlighted the changing dynamic: “How times change: Till recently investors were selling out of Indian market (& others) to buy into US market and now the biggest risk to India is the weakness in the US market.”
Economic experts express growing apprehension regarding the US economic prospects following Trump’s implementation of tariff policies, coupled with reductions in expenditure and employment. The measures have sparked concerns among analysts who perceive these trade-related actions as significant risks to American economic stability, potentially leading to heightened consumer expenses, decelerated economic expansion and reduced job availability.
The economists’ assessment of Trump’s trade disputes indicates serious implications for the US economy, suggesting possible outcomes of escalating prices, diminished growth rates and employment reductions. These worries emerge despite the economy’s demonstrated strength during the COVID pandemic period. According to a Reuters report, the US has experienced notable ‘global outperformance’, characterised by above-trend GDP expansion and steadily decreasing inflation rates.
“There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big — we’re bringing wealth back to America,” Trump said last month.
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